The United Kingdom is rapidly preparing to vote on one of the most crucial decisions in last few decades, to stay or not to stay within a European Union family. The consequences will be severe in both cases – drastic changes are unavoidable as Brexit referendum appointed for 23 June is almost a reality. However, certain issues are the object of political discussion today, issues that may have long-term consequences for both sides, EU and UK.
The Biggest Issue – Immigration
In a case of leaving EU, Britain would face a serious economic problem regarding reduced number of workers and jobs on the market. In 2015, 7% (4.3 million) of the population in the United Kingdom consisted of European workers, the situation caused by free movement agreement within EU. In last decade, this resulted in an increased number of migrants to the UK, predominantly from Romania and Poland. EU advocates the theory that free market is beneficial and reliable while migrants have been accused of lobbying public services and taking jobs. Economists warn that EU workers are an essential part of UK economy, they are paying taxes in the UK, preserving outlined budget. In a case of separation, UK would face a radical economic fall in jobs and workers.
Trade and Business
When it comes to business, the situation is clear – more than half of all trade is with the European Union, so the reform puts a huge uncertainty into the stage. From another side, the British want reforms with an uncertain plan how to compensate current trade ratio with EU. Some experts advocate that elaborate reforms would be troublesome and expensive; affecting prices, investments and production growth. In such atmosphere of an economic dilemma, opposed experts are arguing about future direction that UK market should encompass placing innumerable arguments pro at contra to further EU commitment, but if we want to understand the heart of Brexit debate, we must understand next issue – sovereignty.
The Most Important Brexit Concern – Sovereignty
This is major debate topic in the UK nowadays, as many are arguing that by being part of the European Union, UK loses its national interests and sovereignty. ProEuropians are saying that such situation is favorable, as it will grant free access to enormous EU market. Therefore, it is an absolute necessity to adjust rules and regulations on all levels to take part in the trade.
Economic and Monetary Subjects
The entire market of European Union is estimated to worth $19tn/€15tn/£11tn with the ability of free trade between members. Free EU market should create healthy competition and attract new investments. From the other side, the critics of this system say that such free market is based on phantasmagoria, in reality, it is tending to create huge private business and create modern feudalism. Such harsh criticism is probably partly correct as recently large public sectors within EU become private. It is significant for the UK, as it is well-known that many influencers want to make public rail sector private and control prices on the long run.
Despite a slight rise in oil prices over the past few days, the state of the entire oil market is still upon the veil of uncertainty and speculations. The recent Saudi Arabia’s tactics of neutralizing high-cost producers were more than successful. Entire oil industry shifted their focus from high-cost platforms and global scenarios to more reliable, short-term scenarios.
The Real Cause of The Oil Crisis
The leader of OPEC, Saudi Arabia was the largest oil producer on the planet, but just recently the US has surpassed Saudi Arabia with increasing domestic production by 70%. It is a fact that oil prices hit a decade low, from 2006’s 110$ per barrel to pitiful $25 this February. The main reason for such severe drop down exists oil oversupply, in other words, daily production surpasses estimated daily demand. Another significant factor in creating present oil crisis is restoring Iran on a global oil market.
The Uncertainty of Oil Market
The real question and concern in oil industry nowadays are connected with oil prices, the uncertainty of the market effects all players in the long chain of complicated reactions, investors are hesitating, oil producers are pushing toward higher price per barrel while the owners are restructuring their strategies. In such chaotic mesh of almost endless possibilities, oil prices may fall again resulting in failure of freeze production plan. Over the past three years, the price of a barrel has fallen dramatically, contrary to the enormous rise in the oil production. We are facing global oil hyper production, a situation that leads to lower prices and unsold goods.
Demand is Still High
Despite the low price on the market, the current demand is extremely high. It seems that oil producers may face a slight growth in the oil production and distribution. It is true that the entire oil market transits specific static phase, but analysts estimated that demand will grow by 2.4 million barrels per day by the end of this year. If we compare such analysis with last year, we will find out that the pace of growth is much slower in 2016, compared with 3.4m per day in 2015.
Possible Oil Market Collapse
In such uncertain situation countries like Algeria, Russia and Nigeria are trying to prevent the collapse of the oil market by influencing Saudi Arabia to reduce their production. The problem remains, as the global oil production is extremely high that can lead to further destabilization of the fragile market. The major problem is that gas and oil prices are extremely low at this moment; a situation that is gravely damaging economies of the producing countries like Russia or Iran.
The Real question is – where is a bottom line in this historical fall of the oil prices? Nobody knows an exact answer to such inquiry, but there are few outcomes that may improve the current situation. All such scenarios are depending upon urgent reduction in oil supply. Otherwise we would face the greatest economic crisis in the history of mankind.
The beginning of 2016 broke all known temperature records demanding an urgent answer to artificial climate change that is happening at this moment. Unusual warmth melted the extraordinary amount of icebergs on, resulting in much higher temperature ratio than ever before. Are we facing a new Ice Age?
The Global Heat Record
The climate on Earth is changing faster than we would like to admit, all heat records has already been beaten from the beginning of this year. The situation is extremely dramatic, but we are somehow always trying to put this subject on the table. However, statistics are accurate, average climate change in this year increased for shocking 1.7C above all records. This is a global warning that we must do something, or nature may consider us for novel dinosaurs.
The North is Heating Faster
Recent research shows that the northern hemisphere is heating much faster than the rest of a globe, for the first time this level is 2.2C higher then critical limit that was appointed as harmful. Two degrees higher temperatures created havoc on an Arctic creating uncertain and sudden climate change. The heat rise is much higher than previous records from previous years, in fact, it Is 0.9C higher than absolute temperature maximum in 2015 and 1.4C higher then 2014. The bare fact that we are getting maximum temperature levels, so close one to each other is shocking and disturbing.
The Evidences of Climate Change
With all these results, we must ask ourselves what can be done in such situation. The greenhouse effect is rising, levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are on the highest historical levels, which results that the atmosphere is acting like a gigantic greenhouse, making the surface of a planet warmer than ever before. The major cause of this effect id modern industry, it seems that we are costly paying the price of modern lifestyle. This climate change is not only visible in the atmosphere, but it is also alarming in other vital segments such as hydrosphere. The oceans are covering more than 75% of the earth, and they are playing an essential role in the climate regulation. Recent variations in climate dramatically altered accumulated snow on the planet, reducing the amount of ice and snow and increasing the amount of liquid water. Such change on a global plane is serious, as ice and snow are playing an important role in reducing the temperature on a planet by reflecting 50 to 85$ of the sun rays back to the atmosphere. In other words, rapid melting of snow and ice leads to the even more rapid global warning that can have grave consequences.
The previous month was the fifth month in a row that uplift temperature level, high above our wildest imagination. An answer to this emergency appeared in a form of various organizations that are trying to find an instant solution, to learn from our mistakes and create, hopefully, better reality. All we can do is hoping that their intentions may become fruitful. Meanwhile, one thing is certain – this summer will be the hottest summer ever.